Michael Burry’den \u015eok Eden Yeni Uyar\u0131: “1987 Benzeri Bir D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u0130htimali Bulunuyor!”<\/p>\n
ABD borsalar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesiyle efsanele\u015fen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 Michael Burry, piyasalara ili\u015fkin karamsar bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Burry, yeni bir piyasa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc riskine i\u015faret ederek, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131nda artan kald\u0131ra\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
**Burry: “Piyasalar Ana Zirveye Yak\u0131n, 1987 Benzeri Bir \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f Kap\u0131da Olabilir”**<\/p>\n
CNBC’nin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilgilere g\u00f6re Michael Burry, Substack hesab\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son payla\u015f\u0131mda, mevcut piyasa y\u00fckseli\u015fine ra\u011fmen endi\u015felerinin devam etti\u011fini belirtti. Burry, “H\u00e2l\u00e2 ana zirveye yak\u0131n oldu\u011fumuza ve 1987 benzeri bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimalinin bulundu\u011funa inan\u0131yorum. Ancak S&P 500’\u00fcn yeni zirvelere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, piyasaya yeni para giri\u015fini de beraberinde getirebilir,” ifadelerini kulland\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, 2008 krizini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren \u00fcnl\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar \u00fczerindeki derin \u015f\u00fcphelerini bir kez daha g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne serdi.<\/p>\n
**D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Volatilite Ortam\u0131nda Artan Kald\u0131ra\u00e7 Riski**<\/p>\n
Michael Burry, piyasalardaki bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 daha fazla risk almaya te\u015fvik etti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. “Unutmay\u0131n,” diyen Burry, “piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatiliteyle y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e, volatilite hedefli fonlar kald\u0131ra\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak zorunda kal\u0131yor. Bunun yan\u0131nda di\u011fer momentum stratejilerinden de sisteme yeni kald\u0131ra\u00e7 geliyor.” Bu durum, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n algoritmik ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m stratejilerini daha fazla risk \u00fcstlenmeye y\u00f6neltti\u011fi ve olas\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00e7ok daha sert ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Burry’ye g\u00f6re, piyasa dengesizli\u011fi bu noktada kritik bir seviyeye ula\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
**Yapay Zeka ve \u00c7ip Hisselerine Kar\u015f\u0131 K\u0131sa Pozisyonunu Koruyor**<\/p>\n
Piyasalardaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ralliye kar\u015f\u0131n, Michael Burry, iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa pozisyonunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca, Nvidia ve Palantir gibi yapay zeka temal\u0131 hisselere y\u00f6nelik olumsuz beklentisini de korudu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Burry, bu i\u015flemlere olan uzun vadeli inanc\u0131n\u0131 vurgularken, pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n aleyhine d\u00f6nmesi durumunda zarar\u0131n\u0131 keserek \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u00dcnl\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, Nvidia hari\u00e7 di\u011fer t\u00fcm k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu an i\u00e7in k\u00e2rda oldu\u011funu da ekledi.<\/p>\n
Burry, a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f stratejisinin her yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6zellikle vurgulad\u0131: “Tekrar s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorum; a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f herkes i\u00e7in de\u011fildir. Ben a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f yapmak zorunday\u0131m. \u00c7o\u011fu yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ise bunu yapmamal\u0131.”<\/p>\n
**Michael Burry Kimdir ve Neden Bu Kadar \u00dcnl\u00fc?**<\/p>\n
Michael Burry, finans d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda ad\u0131n\u0131 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinden \u00e7ok \u00f6nce duyurdu. ABD konut piyasas\u0131nda olu\u015fan mortgage balonunu fark ederek, y\u00fcksek riskli “subprime mortgage” kredilerine kar\u015f\u0131 milyarlarca dolarl\u0131k pozisyonlar ald\u0131. Konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle birlikte, Burry’nin kurdu\u011fu Scion Capital b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00e2rlar elde etti ve Burry, finans tarihinin en do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinden birine imza atm\u0131\u015f oldu. Onun bu \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 hikayesi, Michael Lewis’in “The Big Short” adl\u0131 kitab\u0131na ve 2015 yap\u0131m\u0131 ayn\u0131 adl\u0131 filme konu oldu; filmde Burry karakterini Oscar \u00f6d\u00fcll\u00fc Christian Bale canland\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
**1987 “Kara Pazartesi” ve Burry’nin Uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Ba\u011flam\u0131**<\/p>\n
Michael Burry’nin g\u00fcncel uyar\u0131lar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u00e7a bahsetti\u011fi 1987 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, modern finans tarihinin en sert tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck borsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. 19 Ekim 1987’de ya\u015fanan ve “Kara Pazartesi” olarak bilinen bu g\u00fcnde, Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi sadece bir seansta %22,6 de\u011fer kaybetti. Sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 h\u0131zla Avrupa ve Asya piyasalar\u0131na da yay\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler, \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn derinle\u015fmesinde programl\u0131 i\u015flemler (program trading) ve d\u00f6nemin yayg\u0131n risk y\u00f6netimi y\u00f6ntemi olan portf\u00f6y sigortalama (portfolio insurance) stratejilerinin \u00f6nemli rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirler. H\u0131zla artan otomatik sat\u0131\u015f emirleri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kendi kendini besleyen bir s\u00fcrece d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 1987 krizi, ABD ekonomisini resesyona s\u00fcr\u00fcklemese de, sonras\u0131nda borsalarda bug\u00fcn de kullan\u0131lan devre kesici (circuit breaker) uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmesine \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti.<\/p>\n
Burry’nin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc uyar\u0131s\u0131 da, \u00f6zellikle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131nda giderek artan kald\u0131ra\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n, olas\u0131 bir panik sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 1987’dekine benzer zincirleme bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131yor. Bu benzetme, h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen pozisyonlar\u0131n, beklenmedik bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131yla kontrols\u00fcz bir \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi riskine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Michael Burry’nin bu \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar aras\u0131nda yeni bir endi\u015fe dalgas\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, piyasalar\u0131n gelece\u011fine dair tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da alevlendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Michael Burry’den \u015eok Eden Yeni Uyar\u0131: “1987 Benzeri Bir D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u0130htimali Bulunuyor!” ABD borsalar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesiyle efsanele\u015fen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 Michael Burry, piyasalara ili\u015fkin karamsar bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Burry, yeni bir piyasa \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc riskine i\u015faret ederek, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131nda artan kald\u0131ra\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131na […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":5461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5460","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5460"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5460\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5462,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5460\/revisions\/5462"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}