ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini piyasa beklentileri do\u011frultusunda 25 baz puan art\u0131rma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Bu karar, finans piyasalar\u0131nda yak\u0131ndan takip edilen ve k\u00fcresel ekonomiye etkileri merakla beklenen \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme olarak kayda ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
FOMC, 12-0 oybirli\u011fiyle ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararla federal fonlama faizinin hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,50-3,75 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 3,75-4’e y\u00fckseltti. Bu ad\u0131mla Fed, Temmuz 2023’ten bu yana ilk kez faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmi\u015f oldu. Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, Temmuz 2023 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla politika faizi y\u00fczde 5,25-5,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f, bu da 2001 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek faiz oran\u0131 olarak tarihe ge\u00e7mi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Fed’in karar metninde, Amerikan ekonomisinin “sa\u011flam bir h\u0131zda” geni\u015flemeye devam etti\u011fi vurguland\u0131. Metinde ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi belirtilirken, yurt i\u00e7i harcamalar\u0131n diren\u00e7li yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011fu ifade edildi. Verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ise sa\u011flam bir seyir izledi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerde ise, i\u015f kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcne paralel ilerledi\u011fi ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n kayda de\u011fer bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6stermedi\u011fi belirtildi. Bununla birlikte, enflasyonun hala y\u00fcksek seviyelerde seyretti\u011fi ve bu politika ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n, enflasyonun Fed’in y\u00fczde 2’lik uzun vadeli hedefine daha zaman\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Fed’in son yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcncel ekonomik projeksiyonlar, yetkililerin y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde ek bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha gidebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentilerini ortaya koydu. Bireysel faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan “nokta grafi\u011fine” g\u00f6re, 18 FOMC kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 16’s\u0131 bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 daha bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh’\u0131n g\u00f6reve ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan kendi nokta tahminini sunmamay\u0131 tercih etti\u011fi belirtilirken, d\u00f6rt yetkilinin bu y\u0131l iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, iki yetkilinin ise faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tek bir ad\u0131mla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ancak, sonraki y\u0131llara ili\u015fkin projeksiyonlarda herhangi bir ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Yetkililerin beklentileri, 2028 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir, 2029 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise en az bir faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bankan\u0131n g\u00fcncellenen ekonomik tahminlerinde, enflasyon beklentileri bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,6’dan y\u00fczde 3,7’ye y\u00fckseltildi. 2027 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,3 olarak korunan enflasyon tahmini, 2028 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2’den y\u00fczde 2,1’e revize edilirken, 2029 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2 olarak sabitlendi.<\/p>\n
G\u0131da ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tutuldu\u011fu \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon tahminleri de bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,3’ten y\u00fczde 3,4’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. 2027 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,5 seviyesinde b\u0131rak\u0131lan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon tahmini, 2028 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,1’den y\u00fczde 2,2’ye y\u00fckseltilirken, 2029 i\u00e7in yine y\u00fczde 2 olarak belirlendi.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,2’den y\u00fczde 2,3’e ve 2027 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,3’ten y\u00fczde 2,4’e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 2028 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,2’de sabit kal\u0131rken, 2029 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,1 olarak kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahminlerde ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu y\u0131l ve 2027 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,3’ten y\u00fczde 4,1’e, 2028 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4,2’den y\u00fczde 4,1’e indirildi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 tahmini 2029 i\u00e7in de y\u00fczde 4,1 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed, mevcut politika faizi aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan y\u00fczde 3,50-3,75 seviyesiyle y\u0131la ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve y\u0131l\u0131n ilk be\u015f toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitmeme karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ocak ay\u0131ndaki ilk toplant\u0131da iki \u00fcye 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirim talebinde bulunsa da faiz sabit tutuldu. Benzer \u015fekilde, Mart ve Nisan toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda da faiz oranlar\u0131 ayn\u0131 seviyede korundu.<\/p>\n
Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda FOMC, 12-0 oybirli\u011fiyle faizi yine y\u00fczde 3,50-3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131. Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ise faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yap\u0131lmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bu karar 9-3 oyla al\u0131nd\u0131; Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari ve Lorie Logan 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen oy kullanan isimler oldu. B\u00f6ylece Fed, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk be\u015f toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini sabit tutmu\u015f, ancak Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fla bu seyrini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh, faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fi bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nemli a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulundu. Karar\u0131n, ABD ekonomisinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Warsh, yeni i\u015fe al\u0131mlar, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rdeki kazan\u00e7lar ve i\u015fletmelerin sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gibi g\u00f6stergelerin son aylarda olumlu bir iyile\u015fme kaydetti\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle \u015firketler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kredi ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret eden Warsh, “Jackson Hole’deki politika sempozyumunda da ifade etti\u011fim gibi, genel finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlamakta zorlan\u0131r\u0131m. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, Komite taraf\u0131ndan da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde payla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, destekleyici duru\u015fumuzu bir miktar azaltt\u0131k,” \u015feklinde konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Warsh, Fed’in Kongre taraf\u0131ndan belirlenen g\u00f6rev alanlar\u0131ndan istihdam taraf\u0131nda iyi durumda oldu\u011funu aktar\u0131rken, enflasyonun ise be\u015f y\u0131ldan uzun bir s\u00fcredir hedefin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti. “Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla temel oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, g\u00f6rev alan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda. Ger\u00e7ek \u015fu ki, enflasyon \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek ve \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcredir b\u00f6yle devam ediyor,” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu yaz a\u00e7\u0131klanan enflasyon verilerinin temel e\u011filimlerde anlaml\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6stermedi\u011fini belirten Warsh, Jackson Hole’deki vurgusunu hat\u0131rlatarak, toplant\u0131lar aras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde bir\u00e7ok temel emtia girdisinin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Warsh, enflasyonun temel e\u011filiminin y\u00fczde 2’lik hedefe a\u00e7\u0131k ve yeterli h\u0131zda ilerledi\u011finden emin olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Komitenin bug\u00fcn bu standard\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar verdi\u011fini belirten Warsh, oybirli\u011fiyle al\u0131nan karar\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131na daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ula\u015fma konusundaki kararl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh, bankan\u0131n ekonomik projeksiyonlar\u0131na da de\u011finerek, bunlar\u0131n Komite \u00fcyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak kendisinin haziran ay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi bir projeksiyon sunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. Warsh, “Enflasyon riskleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fcyken, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin riskler kabaca dengeli durumda,” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
Son birka\u00e7 haftada, \u00e7o\u011fu geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonominin fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret eden Warsh, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kendi g\u00f6rev alanlar\u0131yla uyumlu \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirmelerini yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. “Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc karar\u0131m\u0131z, g\u00f6rev alan\u0131m\u0131z do\u011frultusunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z en iyi de\u011ferlendirmeyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor,” dedi.<\/p>\n
Bas\u0131n mensuplar\u0131n\u0131n sorular\u0131n\u0131 da yan\u0131tlayan Warsh, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 dahil olmak \u00fczere herhangi bir bireysel fiyat\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyemeyeceklerini, ancak bu fiyatlar\u0131n genel fiyat d\u00fczeyine yay\u0131lmamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131. “\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme i\u015finde de\u011filim. Gelecekte alaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z kararlar hakk\u0131nda \u015fimdiden bir yarg\u0131ya varmayaca\u011f\u0131m,” diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc karar\u0131n, istihdam\u0131n seyrine ve ekonominin g\u00fcc\u00fcne dair de\u011ferlendirmeleri do\u011frultusunda al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Warsh, piyasalarda zaman zaman olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak kararlar\u0131n\u0131 bu do\u011frultuda vermediklerini vurgulad\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n Fed’e faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik soru \u00fczerine Warsh, “Bug\u00fcn ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z karar, Kongre’nin fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flama y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bize verdi\u011fi g\u00f6revi yerine getirmek ad\u0131na at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fru bir ad\u0131md\u0131,” cevab\u0131n\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n
Fed’in son toplant\u0131dan bu yana de\u011fi\u015fen fakt\u00f6rlere dair soruya cevaben Warsh, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n durumu, enflasyon e\u011filimleri ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere dikkat \u00e7ekti. “Birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nceki de\u011ferlendirmem, yaz aylar\u0131ndaki enflasyon e\u011filimlerinin arzu edilen kriterleri kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. O zamandan bu yana bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmemi gerektirecek \u00e7ok az veri g\u00f6rd\u00fcm, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ayn\u0131 kanaati koruyorum,” ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Herhangi bir veriyi “nefesini tutarak” beklemedi\u011fini vurgulayan Warsh, \u00f6nemli olan\u0131n “g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc” i\u00e7eren tekil veriler de\u011fil, trendler oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. “Tekil veriler yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 dalgalanmalar bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131r. Bunlara a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 odaklanmak tehlikeli bir saplant\u0131d\u0131r. Bu, benim kayg\u0131 duydu\u011fum bir konu de\u011fil,” ifadeleriyle tekil verilerin yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Tahvil faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u00fc\u00e7 ana nedene ba\u011flayan Warsh, bunlar\u0131 ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, sermaye harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler olarak s\u0131ralad\u0131. Warsh, haziran ay\u0131nda fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flama taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden teyit etti\u011fini, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda da bir karara de\u011fil bir disipline ba\u011fl\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatt\u0131. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc karar\u0131n da bu konudaki ciddiyetlerini ve fiyat istikrar\u0131 hedefini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftireceklerini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen Warsh, “\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar ve aylar boyunca g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerimizi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken bu konuda daha fazla \u015fey s\u00f6yleyece\u011fiz, ancak gelecekteki eylemler hakk\u0131nda \u015fimdiden pe\u015fin h\u00fck\u00fcmde bulunmaya pek haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 de\u011filim,” \u015feklinde s\u00f6zlerini tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini piyasa beklentileri do\u011frultusunda 25 baz puan art\u0131rma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Bu karar, finans piyasalar\u0131nda yak\u0131ndan takip edilen ve k\u00fcresel ekonomiye etkileri merakla beklenen \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme olarak kayda ge\u00e7ti. FOMC, 12-0 oybirli\u011fiyle ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 kararla federal fonlama faizinin hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,50-3,75 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 3,75-4’e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":6451,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[834,236,254],"class_list":["post-6450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-faiz","tag-fed"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6450"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6450\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6452,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6450\/revisions\/6452"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sunpress4.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}